决策 vs 预测

 有时候越忙反而越能抽出时间去做事情。搬家和年末工作忙之际，开始重拾阅读Dalio的Principle。虽然书里面没有大量陈述数据和怎么具体做投资决策，更多的是背后的思维逻辑应该怎样培养，还是有不少启发作用。

    人类对未知有着天然的恐惧，所以但凡一切和“预测”相关的内容都自然而然地吸引目光和注意，大俗如流年运程，正经如经济市场预测等等。书里面其中的一个观点反而提出，在什么时候面对怎样的情况做怎样的决策，比想尽方法的预测未来、试图掌控一切来得更重要。

    这一段原文是这样写的：

    .......These decision-making systems were much better than the forecasting systems I 'd been using before, mostly because they incorporated our ongoing reactions to developments, allowing us to deal with a wider range of possibilities. They could also include timing rules. In a January 1987 piece called "Making Money vs. Making Forecasts,", I explained that: 

     Truth be known, forecasts aren't worth very much, and most people who make them don't make money in the markets ...... This is because nothing is certain and when one overlays the probabilities of all of the various things that affect the future in order to make a forecast, one gets a wide array of possibilities with varying probabilities, not one highly probable outcome ... We believe that market movements reflect economic movements. Economic movements are reflected in economic statistics. By studying the relationships between economic statistics and market movements, we've developed precise rules for identifying important shifts in the economic/market environment and in turn our positions. In other words, rather than forecasting changes in the economic environment and shifting positions in anticipation of them, we pick up these changes as they're occurring and move our money around to keep in those markets which perform best in that environment. 

这里主要讲了一个结论：预测其实没有我们想的那么有价值，原因在于未来不是100%确定的。基于这个现实，一个人对所有想要的情况做了详细的分析后，得出了各种各样的可能性，A、B、C选项都有可能，而不是得出一个最有可能发生的A。

要想得出一个straight forward的outcome或是决策，要做的是研究背后的流动和因果关系，市场流动反应经济流动，而经济流动又反应在经济数据上。投资要做的不是预测，而是通过深入学习这些关系，理解在不同的变化环境中，怎样找准那个变化的点，并且对此做出恰当、合理、符合逻辑的资产分配的反应。对变化发生时，能看透背后的主因，迅速做出反应，是做出决策的关键，是能否做出正确决策的重要影响因素。

现实中要做出正确的决策，无论是投资还是人生，都不容易的事情，它必定不是一蹴而就或者是拍脑袋就能得来的，这种甚至都不算是投机，叫赌博。事情发生有起因、过程、变化和结果，因此做决策之前，更多的时间其实是花在日常的修炼中，例如学习基本知识，理解背后的逻辑因果链，自己做独立判断分析，找第一手数据而不是依赖于别人的分析（这个分析甚至有可能是很主观的），有点像挖地三尺那种，把背后的都揪出来，最后建立起自己的一套逻辑系统（不同事情可能对应的系统也是不一样的），然后运用这种系统。

待续……