决策 vs 预测
有时候越忙反而越能抽出时间去做事情。搬家和年末工作忙之际，开始重拾阅读Dalio的Principle。虽然书里面没有大量陈述数据和怎么具体做投资决策，更多的是背后的思维逻辑应该怎样培养，还是有不少启发作用。 人类对未知有着天然的恐惧，所以但凡一切和“预测”相关的内容都自然而然地吸引目光和注意，大俗如流年运程，正经如经济市场预测等等。书里面其中的一个观点反而提出，在什么时候面对怎样的情况做怎样的决策，比想尽方法的预测未来、试图掌控一切来得更重要。 这一段原文是这样写的： .......These decision-making systems were much better than the forecasting systems I 'd been using before, mostly because they incorporated our ongoing reactions to developments, allowing us to deal with a wider range of possibilities. They could also include timing rules. In a January 1987 piece called "Making Money vs. Making Forecasts,", I explained that: Truth be known, forecasts aren't worth very much, and most people who make them don't make money in the markets ...... This is because nothing is certain and when one overlays the probabilities of all of the various things that affect the future in order to make a forecast, one gets a wide array of possibilities with varying p...